Internal Tracking and Bankroll References

Fairline records an internal model-versus-price observation when the model's fair probability differs from the sportsbook's vig-included price by 3% or more. Those rows feed calibration, closing-line tracking, and the public MLB dog cohort. They are not surfaced as recommendations. Each row is normalized to one unit so the research record stays comparable across markets and sports.

The research weight does not scale with the size of the gap. A 2026 review found the larger claimed edges were the worst-calibrated, so scaling the assumed stake amplified the losses. A flat one unit keeps that calibration defect from being multiplied. For personal bankroll planning, one unit is 2% of bankroll. For the reasoning behind unit-based staking, see the guide on units and bankroll management.

Command-line reference

The standalone model runner also ships a fractional Kelly criterion calculator used for offline analysis. It is a reference tool and does not size anything presented on this site. For completeness, its per-sport settings:

The parameter values on this page are rendered from the running system and refresh periodically; when a weight or threshold changes, this page reflects it automatically.