How the Models Work
Each sport uses a different statistical framework matched to its scoring characteristics:
Run scoring has overdispersion (variance/mean ~2.1). The negative binomial distribution handles this by decoupling mean and variance via a dispersion parameter.
Goal scoring is well-modeled by independent Poisson processes. Each team's lambda is computed from 5v5 xG, goaltending, special teams, and situational factors.
Modified Poisson framework with a tau correction for dependency in low-scoring outcomes. Adjusts draw probability by 2-3pp, the highest-Sharpe edge in football betting.
All models follow the same pipeline pattern: fetch data, build team/player ratings, apply contextual adjustments (home advantage, rest, weather, etc.), run the scoring engine to produce a full probability distribution, then derive fair odds for every market.
The parameter values on this page are served live from the model configuration and refresh periodically; when a weight or threshold changes, this page reflects it automatically.