MLB · NHL · PREMIER LEAGUE · NFL

The model's price for every game, next to the book's.

Fairline runs four models on free public data. None of them reads a book line. A card wears a chip when a model and a book disagree by enough, and that chip is not a pick.

Free public data · no sportsbook affiliation · 21+

Each league gets its own model.

THE MODELS
MLBNEGATIVE BINOMIAL RUN SCORING

It reads starting pitchers, park and weather, lineup quality and bullpen fatigue.

It publishes a win probability, fair moneyline odds and a projected run total.

GRADED
5,577
BRIER SKILL
+0.010
Learn →
NHLPOISSON GOAL RATES

It reads team scoring and save rates, goalie starts, special teams, home ice and rest.

It publishes a win probability, fair moneyline odds and a projected goal total.

GRADED
375
BRIER SKILL
gathering
Learn →
EPLDIXON-COLES ADJUSTED POISSON

It reads club attack and defence rates split by venue, recent form and the tau draw correction.

It publishes home, draw and away probabilities, fair odds and a projected goal total.

GRADED
306
BRIER SKILL
gathering
Learn →
NFLOPPONENT-ADJUSTED EPA WITH A KEY-NUMBER DISCRETIZER

It reads play-by-play EPA, opponent strength and rest between games.

It publishes a win probability, fair odds, a model line and a projected point total.

GRADED
0
BRIER SKILL
gathering
Learn →

How to read a card.

THE BOARD
  1. 1The bar. It splits the model's win probability between the two teams.
  2. 2Fair odds. This is the price at which the model breaks even on each side.
  3. 3The book price under it. This is the best number the books we track are quoting right now.
  4. 4The chip. It names the largest disagreement on the game, with the side, the line, the book price and the fair price.
How fair odds are calculated →

Every graded bet stays on the record.

Transparency →
GRADEDBRIER SKILL
MLB5,577+0.010
NHL375gathering
EPL306gathering
NFL0gathering

A sport publishes a skill number once it passes 500 graded games. Under that it prints its count and reads gathering.

The 2025 MLB backtest replayed the pipeline over 2,421 games with no lookahead. It reported 55.8% moneyline accuracy and +0.026 Brier skill against a coin flip. Fairline lists that study as pending data.

The limits.

Free data only. Every projection input is free public data. No paid feed sits behind a model.
No book lines in. A model never reads a book price. The projection runs first and the prices arrive after it.
Flags run behind a gate. Each sport is gated on its own record. NHL and NFL game markets are switched off today.
No picks. Fairline prints no picks and no bet sizes. You decide what to do with a price.
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