Fairline public model report
This report shows the current graded calibration and sportsbook data coverage for Fairline's four models. It contains no game prices, value flags or individual bets.
The coverage data was computed on .
MLB
The measurement window runs from through .
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Graded bets | 5,774 |
| Observed win rate | 45.7% |
| Brier score | 0.246 |
| Base-rate Brier score | 0.248 |
| Brier skill | 0.009 |
| Calibration error | 8.5% |
| Mean claimed edge | 6.6% |
| Realized edge | -1.8% |
Sportsbook coverage
Fairline tracks moneyline, spread and totals markets. The table reports the median number of distinct books with a usable price for each market.
| Market | Median books, 7 days | Median books, 30 days |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Spread | 3.0 | 4.0 |
| Totals | 3.0 | 4.0 |
The 30-day window contains 409 scheduled games. 98.0% had two or more books. 6.6% had stale or missing prices. 0 days with scheduled games had no fresh price.
NHL
The measurement window runs from through .
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Graded bets | 375 |
| Observed win rate | 48.8% |
| Brier score | 0.238 |
| Base-rate Brier score | 0.250 |
| Brier skill | 0.045 |
| Calibration error | 9.3% |
| Mean claimed edge | 6.9% |
| Realized edge | -1.6% |
Sportsbook coverage
Fairline tracks moneyline, spread and totals markets. The table reports the median number of distinct books with a usable price for each market.
| Market | Median books, 7 days | Median books, 30 days |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Spread | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Totals | Unavailable | Unavailable |
The 30-day window contains 0 scheduled games. Unavailable had two or more books. Unavailable had stale or missing prices. 0 days with scheduled games had no fresh price.
EPL
The measurement window runs from through .
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Graded bets | 332 |
| Observed win rate | 41.6% |
| Brier score | 0.202 |
| Base-rate Brier score | 0.243 |
| Brier skill | 0.169 |
| Calibration error | 12.4% |
| Mean claimed edge | 8.6% |
| Realized edge | -2.7% |
Sportsbook coverage
Fairline tracks moneyline, spread and totals markets. The table reports the median number of distinct books with a usable price for each market.
| Market | Median books, 7 days | Median books, 30 days |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Spread | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Totals | 2.0 | 2.0 |
The 30-day window contains 30 scheduled games. 80.0% had two or more books. 10.0% had stale or missing prices. 1 days with scheduled games had no fresh price.
NFL
The measurement window runs from through .
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Graded bets | 0 |
| Observed win rate | Unavailable |
| Brier score | Unavailable |
| Base-rate Brier score | Unavailable |
| Brier skill | Unavailable |
| Calibration error | Unavailable |
| Mean claimed edge | Unavailable |
| Realized edge | Unavailable |
Sportsbook coverage
Fairline tracks moneyline, spread and totals markets. The table reports the median number of distinct books with a usable price for each market.
| Market | Median books, 7 days | Median books, 30 days |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Spread | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Totals | 1.0 | 1.0 |
The 30-day window contains 1 scheduled games. 0.0% had two or more books. 100.0% had stale or missing prices. 1 days with scheduled games had no fresh price.
Vendor odds timestamps are not available to us. Every freshness and staleness figure below is measured from when Fairline itself last fetched a quote, not from the book's own last-update time.