How Does the Starting Goalie Change Fair Moneyline Odds?
The goalie enters as a multiplier on the goals the other team is expected to score. Swapping a .920 starter for a .890 backup moves a fair price 14.7 points.
Updated Sep 2026 · Part of the models series
The starting goalie enters the NHL model as one multiplier on the goals the other team is expected to score. It is one minus his save percentage, divided by one minus the league average save percentage. Change the goalie and that multiplier changes, which changes the expected goal counts, the scoreline matrix built from them, and the fair moneyline read off it.
Where does the goalie enter the projection?
On the opposing team’s expected goals, as a multiplier. The model builds each side’s expected goals from attack strength, the opponent’s defensive weakness and the league average, then scales that number by the goalie it has to beat.
The league average save percentage is .900, so the denominator of the multiplier is 1 − .900 = .100. A .920 goalie gives .080 / .100 = 0.80, cutting the goals expected against him by a fifth. A .890 goalie gives .110 / .100 = 1.10, adding a tenth. Special-teams goals and flat adjustments for home ice, rest and travel are added after the multiplier, not scaled by it.
What save percentage does the model use?
A projected one, not last night’s. The model blends four seasons of the goalie’s own save percentage with declining weight, adds phantom shots at the league average to pull an extreme number back toward the middle, then blends that baseline with his recent starts on game day.
Save percentage needs thousands of shots before it settles, which is why the projection reaches back that far and regresses that hard. The current weights are rendered live on the NHL model page.
How much can the goalie move a fair price?
Enough to flip which team is the favorite. The example below swaps a .920 starter for a .890 backup on the home side and leaves everything else alone.
That swap is a large one, from a strong starter to a weak backup. A more ordinary change between two competent goalies moves the number by a few points rather than fifteen. What holds either way is which input moves most. The goalie the other team has to score on changes more often between a morning projection and puck drop than anything else the model reads.
What this does not tell you
Save percentage is a single number that says nothing about the quality of the shots faced, and goals saved above expected is not an input to this model. A goalie listed as TBD means the projection ran against a guess, so the fair price is only as good as that guess. The multiplier also predicts nothing about who the coach actually starts. Fairline flags no NHL value on any market while the pause described on the NHL model page holds, so these prices are a reference and not a recommendation. Any single game still turns on variance.